NFL Week 2 picks: Cowboys backed to rebound against Commanders
The Dallas Cowboys are being backed to respond against the Washington Commanders in Week 2 after a disappointing defensive performance against the New York Giants.
Dallas entered the season with significant expectations after adding a new defensive coordinator and five new starters, but the opening game raised familiar concerns. The Cowboys struggled with communication and were pushed around by the Giants in a performance that offered little evidence of a major defensive improvement.
Dallas allowed the most points in franchise history last season, and the Giants produced the NFL's highest expected points added (EPA) per play against the Cowboys' defence in Week 1.
The Cowboys were also among the league's most talked-about teams during the offseason, with Super Bowl ambitions openly discussed despite finishing 7-9-1 last season.
Now, the immediate priority is avoiding an 0-2 start.
The Week 2 pick is Cowboys -4 against Washington. The Commanders nearly defeated the Philadelphia Eagles in their opener but were not completely convincing themselves, giving Dallas another opportunity to show that its Week 1 defensive struggles were an outlier.
A second poor defensive showing, however, would put even more pressure on the Cowboys and make the offseason optimism surrounding the team harder to justify.
Here are the against-the-spread picks for the rest of the NFL Week 2 schedule.
Lions (+5.5) over Bills
The Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions both enter Week 2 with reasons for optimism.
Josh Allen produced an outstanding performance against the Houston Texans in Week 1, while Detroit needed to defend a two-point conversion in overtime to beat the New Orleans Saints.
The Lions' second-half performance against New Orleans was not ideal after building a 21-0 lead, but the team still secured the win. With both sides capable of competing, this matchup is expected to remain close, making Detroit plus 5.5 the pick.
Buccaneers (-8.5) over Browns
Taking Tampa Bay while giving more than a touchdown comes with some risk, particularly because the Buccaneers have not yet established themselves as a dominant team.
However, Cleveland remains difficult to back with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, while the Browns also struggled in their opening game.
The Buccaneers are therefore backed to cover the 8.5-point spread.
Packers (-3.5) over Jets
The Green Bay Packers' spread moved significantly from the lookahead line before Week 1.
Green Bay was initially listed as a 5.5-point favourite for its game at the Jets, but that number dropped to 3.5 after the opening week.
Despite a late collapse against Minnesota, the Packers out-gained the Vikings 419-239. Meanwhile, the Jets defeated Tennessee, although that result may have reflected more on the Titans than on New York.
Green Bay remains the pick to win by more than 3.5 points.
Panthers (-2.5) over Falcons
The Atlanta quarterback situation makes this matchup particularly difficult to assess.
Michael Penix Jr. would give the Falcons a better chance, while undrafted rookie Jack Strand could potentially produce an unexpected performance.
Carolina has not covered as a favourite since 2021, but the Panthers are backed to end that run with a 2.5-point win against Atlanta.
Eagles (-7) over Titans
Philadelphia is being asked to cover a relatively large number on the road, which makes the pick less comfortable early in the season.
However, Tennessee's Week 1 offensive performance was a major concern. The Titans struggled to move the ball, and the challenge becomes even greater against the Eagles' defence.
Philadelphia also had offensive issues in its opener, but the matchup still favours the Eagles to cover seven points.
Texans (-2.5) over Bengals
Houston's defence is expected to be among the NFL's best this season.
The Texans were beaten by an exceptional Josh Allen performance in Week 1, but their offence showed signs of significant improvement.
Cincinnati won its opener against Tampa Bay, although the Bengals relied heavily on four turnovers to secure the victory. Houston is backed to overcome its Week 1 loss and cover 2.5 points against Cincinnati.
Saints (+8.5) over Ravens
Baltimore entered the season with high expectations and immediately showed why after overpowering Indianapolis in Week 1.
The Ravens' receiver situation is a concern, however. Zay Flowers suffered a hamstring injury and Ja'Kobi Lane fractured his wrist, leaving Lamar Jackson with fewer options in the passing game.
New Orleans had a poor offensive start against Detroit but improved later in the contest. The Saints are backed to stay within 8.5 points against Baltimore.
Bears (-4.5) over Vikings
The Minnesota quarterback situation remains uncertain following Kyler Murray's concussion, with Carson Wentz expected to take over if Murray cannot play.
Chicago's defence remains a concern, but the Bears' offence showed enough in Week 1 to suggest it can score consistently.
That makes Chicago the pick to cover 4.5 points against Minnesota.
Patriots (-5.5) over Steelers
Pittsburgh won its opening game, but its offensive numbers remain a concern.
The Steelers ranked 30th in the NFL in offensive EPA and 32nd in success rate in Week 1, with those figures coming against a mediocre Atlanta defence.
New England lost its opener and Drake Maye faced criticism during the week, but a home game, an easier opponent and additional rest could help the Patriots respond.
New England is backed to cover 5.5 points.
Chargers (-6.5) over Raiders
The Los Angeles Chargers' line has dropped considerably after their Week 1 loss to Arizona.
The Chargers were 9.5-point favourites on the lookahead line but are now giving 6.5 points to the Las Vegas Raiders.
While Los Angeles looked poor in its opener, the Raiders' victory over Miami also needs to be viewed in context. The Dolphins struggled badly and were not considered a strong roster entering the season.
The Chargers are backed to bounce back and cover 6.5 points.
Broncos (-2.5) over Jaguars
This matchup is another test of whether Week 1 results are being overvalued.
Jacksonville looked impressive in its opener, while Denver struggled on both sides of the ball, including missed tackles and offensive problems.
The pick is based on Denver being significantly better than it showed last week, as well as its home-field advantage in September.
The Broncos are 85-34-2 at home in September all-time, while playing at altitude can create additional difficulties for visiting teams early in the season.
Dolphins (+13.5) over 49ers
Backing Miami is unlikely to be comfortable after its opening-week performance.
The Dolphins were beaten by the Raiders, who had been only 3.5-point favourites before the game, and Miami's struggles could become a recurring issue this season.
However, San Francisco could experience a letdown after beating the Los Angeles Rams, while the 49ers also have to deal with the fatigue associated with their long trip to Australia.
Miami is backed to cover the 13.5-point spread.
Seahawks (-4) over Cardinals
Seattle's spread has also moved sharply from the lookahead number.
The Seahawks were initially 10-point favourites, but the line has fallen to four points after Arizona defeated the Chargers.
Seattle has additional rest heading into the matchup, which should benefit the team while also providing more preparation time for Drew Lock.
The Seahawks' defence remains a positive factor, making Seattle the pick to cover four points.
Colts (+6.5) over Chiefs
Kansas City opened the season with a comfortable win over Denver, while its defence performed well.
Kenneth Walker III was also outstanding, although concerns remain around the Chiefs' passing game.
Indianapolis, meanwhile, had little go right in Week 1, making this a difficult team to back at Arrowhead Stadium.
Still, the Colts are being backed to stay within 6.5 points.
Giants (+7) over Rams
The Los Angeles Rams were 9.5-point favourites on the lookahead line, but the spread has moved significantly following Week 1.
The Rams' opener was unusual because of their long trip to Australia, and there are legitimate questions over whether the physical effects of that journey could linger.
Los Angeles also struggled badly in the game, meaning it needs to show signs of improvement before being trusted to cover a touchdown.
The Giants, meanwhile, looked strong in their opener against Dallas. New York is therefore backed to cover seven points against the Rams.
Week 1 record
The picks went 7-9 against the spread in Week 1.
The Week 2 slate now presents another opportunity to assess which opening-week performances were meaningful and which may have been early-season outliers.
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